MH370 Hunters Narrow Down Most Likely Site of Wreckage

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MH370 Hunters Narrow Down Most Likely Site of Wreckage

  • May 06, 2017 |
    Angus Whitley
    December 3, 2015, 10:20 AM GMT+11
     

    Australian authorities hunting for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 said they’ve narrowed down the search area for the missing plane as they seek to solve one of the biggest mysteries in modern aviation history.

    New analysis of the aircraft’s flight path and satellite communications has generated a “hotspot” where the wreckage is most likely to lie, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said Thursday in Canberra. Investigators are now focusing on the southern end of a refined 100,000-square-kilometer (39,000-square-mile) search area, Truss said. ...

    About 44,000 square kilometers of ocean still needs to be scoured and the search is expected to be completed by next June, the bureau said. The total cost is estimated at A$180 million ($132 million), including A$20 million from the Chinese government, according to Truss. ...

     

    Malaysia Airlines said in a statement it welcomes “any reports that will give clarity on the tragic incident.”

     

    At the heart of Bayesian analysis is the quantification of a set of uncertainties. These calculations are continually updated as new information comes in, so even unsuccessful patrols in the hunt for the missing plane can be helpful. The U.S. Coast Guard’s search and rescue teams rely on similar methodology. The theory has even been used to measure the probability of God’s existence

     

    “Bayes theory can give you a hotspot based on geography,” said Azizur Rahman, a lecturer in mathematics and statistics at Charles Sturt University in New South Wales who has studied Bayes for about 15 years. “With some prior knowledge, using current data you can produce a new probability. The good thing is that it’s always updating.”

     

    Grieving Families

     

    Thursday’s announcement did little to mollify the bereaved families.

     

    “I’m not optimistic. We’ve always demanded that all bases of calculation for the search be disclosed publicly for family members’ right to information,” Jiang Hui, a Beijing resident whose mother was on the flight, said by text message. “Now China is also spending money and we hope it can ‘buy’ some information for family members.”

    ...

     

Period03 Dec 2015

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleMH370 Hunters Narrow Down Most Likely Site of Wreckage
    Media name/outletBloomberg News
    CountryAustralia
    Date03/12/15
    Description“Bayes theory can give you a hotspot based on geography,” said Azizur Rahman, a lecturer in mathematics and statistics at Charles Sturt University in New South Wales who has studied Bayes for about 15 years. “With some prior knowledge, using current data you can produce a new probability. The good thing is that it’s always updating.”
    Producer/AuthorAngus Whitley
    URLhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/mh370-hunters-say-new-analysis-reaffirms-most-likely-wreck-site
    PersonsAzizur Rahman

Keywords

  • MH370
  • Malaysia Airlines
  • Australian authorities
  • hotspot
  • Bayesian analysis