Adapting water policy to climate change for optimal water productivity and food security

Jianxin Mu

    Research output: ThesisDoctoral Thesis

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    The results showed that there was a US$7.0 billion grain deficit in the year 2000 and there will be a US$16.2 billion and US$9.8 billion grain deficit respectively in 2030 and 2050 at the medium population growth and irrigation area development scenarios. To meet the total food demand in 2030 and 2050, 101.3 and 96.3million ha of gross irrigated area need to be reached respectively.Thirdly the impacts of climate change on future water demand, water situations and water productivity at both catchment and country scales were analysed. As shown by the simulated results from the BHIWA model, ET0is a more dominant factor that influences water demand and water stress situations than the other meteorological data, such as precipitation, and better water management practices will result in a lower irrigation water demand. In addition, as shown by the simulated results from the PODIUMSim model, with the same change range in ETp and P75, the increase of P75 will have a higher impact on irrigation water demand and water productivity than the decrease of ETp.Finally stochastic analysis was undertaken to depict the risks in terms ofboth water quantity and water quality at the river basin level as well as the risks in terms of water demand and water productivities at the country level. In the context of the Yellow River basin, there is a 90% probability that the surface water withdrawals for irrigation will be between 15,500 and 25,500 million m3 for the year 2030 and between 13,400 and 20,400 for the year 2050 for the most practical and favourable scenarios with uncertainties from water use, and between 17,600 and 18,600 million m3 for the year 2030 and between 15,000 and 17,000 million m3 for the year 2050 due to uncertainties associated with climate change.
    Original languageEnglish
    QualificationDoctor of Philosophy
    Awarding Institution
    • Charles Sturt University
    • Khan, Shahbaz, Principal Supervisor
    • Saeed, Zahid, Co-Supervisor
    Award date01 Mar 2009
    Place of PublicationAustralia
    Publication statusPublished - 2009


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