Agricultural productivity, the electoral cycle and ENSO effects in Papua New Guinea

Commentators have suggested that there is a link between agricultural productivity and elections in Papua New Guinea. On its face this seems a plausible hypothesis, however I find little supporting evidence for a link between agricultural output in export cash crops and PNG elections. What does appear true is that recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in PNG have occurred around election years. It is these ENSO events and the droughts and floods that follow that have impacted PNG agricultural productivity. The unfortunate coincidence of elections and agricultural stress may explain some of the civil unrest in PNG elections.