An assessment of transmission dynamics via time-varying reproduction number of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Fiji

Rejnesh Lal, Weidong Huang, Zhenuqan Li, Swastika Prasad

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Abstract

This study involves the estimation of a key epidemiological parameter for evaluating and monitoring the transmissibility of a disease. The time-varying number is the index for quantifying the transmissibility of infectious diseases. Accurate and timely estimation of the time-varying reproduction number is essential for optimizing nonpharmacological interventions and movement control orders during epidemics. The time-varying reproduction number for
the second wave of the pandemic in Fiji is estimated using the popular EpiEstim R package and the publicly available COVID-19 data from 19 April 2021 to 1
December 2021. Our findings show that the non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders introduced and enforced by the Fijian Government had a significant impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the results show that many restrictions were either relaxed or eased when the time-varying reproduction number was below the threshold value of 1. The results have provided some information on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that could be used in the future as a guide for public health policymakers in Fiji. Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the current public health policies that are being implemented in Fiji.
Original languageEnglish
Article number220004
Pages (from-to)1-12
Number of pages12
JournalRoyal Society Open Science
Volume9
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Aug 2022

Grant Number

  • COVID-19
  • time-varying reproduction number
  • Fiji
  • EpiEstim

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