Within any grazing system managers need to decide on how to best manage the existing mosaic of pasture resources. This involves the adjustment of stocking rates and grazing management, as well as the use of inputs and existing technologies. The main technologies available to grazing managers are fertiliser, and the sowing of introduced species to improve pasture productivity, quality and persistence. These represent a series of tactical and strategic decisions that need to be made under climatic uncertainty about their degree of success in improving the persistence of desirable species, production and profits.The process represents a complex dynamic decision problem. To address this problem a bioeconomic framework was developed that is capable of modelling the dynamic nature of pasture resource composition and production, and its response to climate and utilisation by grazing livestock. The framework integrates the sequential nature of the decision-making problems faced by sheep producers under climatic uncertainty. This is achieved by developing a paddock-level dynamic pasture resource development (DPRD) simulation model and integrating it into a seasonal stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model. The SDP consists of four seasonal transition probability matrices which are applied sequentially to solve a recursive equation with the objective of maximising the expected net present value of the sheep enterprise in the long run.
|Qualification||Doctor of Philosophy|
|Place of Publication||Australia|
|Publication status||Published - 2008|