Building responsive bio-economic models to replicate complex farm management decisions for mixed irrigation farming systems in southern NSW

Kim M. Broadfoot, Michael Cashen, Karl Behrendt, Anthony Clark, Phil Graham

    Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paperConference paperpeer-review

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    Abstract

    This paper is part of a broader study that uses AusFarm, a complex biophysical model, to model a mixed irrigation farming system in the Murray Irrigation Area and Districts (Murray Irrigation Limited (MIL) post 1995). The study is unique is that the biophysical model has been coupled to an economic module that includes an irrigation sequence model and pricing function. The study has enabled the examination of water market tools that irrigators have available to them in the MIL (‘temporary water’ and ‘carry over’), and the importance of these tool in managing future risk under changing climates.
    This paper shows that a combination of water market tools will be an important component in managing risk under changing climate, at least under a mid-range emissions scenario with modest reductions in irrigation water availability. For example, the modelling in this paper shows that having both the ability to carry over water to the following water year, and access to temporary water markets increases the likelihood of sowing opportunities and yield gains for the summer irrigated crop for both historical and projected climate periods. Access to these tools will become crucial as irrigators manage future water supply and demand risk under the impact of climate change and changes to water policy.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationMODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
    EditorsR.W. Vervoort, A.A. Voinov, J.P. Evans, L. Marshall
    Place of PublicationSydney, Australia
    PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand
    Pages176-182
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Electronic)9780987214386
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 05 Dec 2021
    Event24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: MODSIM 2021 - The University of Sydney and International Convention Centre Sydney, Sydney, Australia
    Duration: 05 Dec 202109 Dec 2021
    https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2021/
    https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2021/documents/MODSIM2021_detailed_program_v1.4.pdf (Conference program)

    Conference

    Conference24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
    Abbreviated titleModelling for action with a flood of data and a cloud of uncertainty
    Country/TerritoryAustralia
    CitySydney
    Period05/12/2109/12/21
    OtherThe 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2021) incorporating the 2nd Regional Conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) was held at The University of Sydney and International Convention Centre Sydney, Darling Harbour, from Sunday 5 to Thursday 9 December 2021 with a workshop day on Friday 10 December.

    It was held jointly with the 28th National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research, and the DSTG led Defence Operations Research Symposium (DORS 2021). The International Microsimulation Association also joined.

    The theme for this event was Modelling for action with a flood of data and a cloud of uncertainty.
    Internet address

    Grant Number

    • 0000102204
    • 0000101585

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