This study provides a way of calculating confidence intervals for a spatial microsimulation model using estimates of statistical validity calculated from Census data. The calculation of confidence intervals has so far been difficult using spatial microsimulation models, but this paper provides a technique that estimates confidence intervals based on the z statistic published previously. This z statistic uses small area Census data and results from the spatial microsimulation model. An application of the method to estimates of housing stress shows that about 95.7% of SLAs show statistically accurate small area estimates with reasonably narrow confidence intervals.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIMA
Subtitle of host publication5th Proceedings
Place of PublicationLuxembourg
PublisherLuxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
Number of pages17
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Event5th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA) 2015 - Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
Duration: 02 Sep 201504 Sep 2015
https://www.liser.lu/?type=news&id=212 (Congress website)


Conference5th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA) 2015
OtherThe Luxembourg Institute of Socio-economic Research (LISER, anciennement CEPS/INSTEAD) and its Modelling and Simulation Unit are pleased to host the fifth World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA). After previous World Conferences organised in Vienna (2007), Ottawa (2009), Stockholm (2011) and Canberra (2013), the next IMA general meeting will be held in Esch-sur-Alzette, in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, on 2-4 September 2015.

The purpose of this Congress is to share knowledge and experience in relation to the development and use of microsimulation models. It will be of interest to creators and users of microsimulation models in international organisations, governments, academia and the private sector.
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