Climate change and disaster risk and vulnerability context of Province 5

The Government of Province 5 is preparing its medium- term periodic development plan. The government has identified Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change (CC) as an important environment and development agenda cutting across all the major socioeconomic sectors. The Province Planning Commission (PPC) started a study, with the support from Policy and Institutions Facility (PIF) / Oxford Policy Management (OPM), to assess the situation of climate change and disaster risk in the province, and generate evidence to enable the integration of climate change and disaster risk reduction in the plan.
A technical team, consisting of experts and subject matter specialists, worked closely with the Planning Commission. The team reviewed published literature and carried out consultations with the provincial and local governments. The study team also reviewed disaster risk reduction plans and local plans on climate change adaptation and collected first-hand information at the Palika level. 
The climate change trend analysis report (1971-2014), prepared by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Nepal, shows that almost all Province 5 districts experienced increased annual precipitation in winter, pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons with significant variations in monsoon precipitation among the districts. In all districts of Province 5, there is positive trend indicating a rise in minimum temperatures in all seasons. There is also a positive trend indicating an  increase in maximum temperatures in all Province 5 districts. The trend in four Terai districts (Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Banke and Bardiya) shows a decrease in maximum temperatures during winter.
Similarly the climate change scenario report (2014-2100), prepared by the DHM and International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), reveals that precipitation will increase in all Province 5 districts. As well as the positive  change in precipitation levels in Province 5 districts are also expected to have an increase in temperature in the medium-term (2050) and the long-term (2100). The future Province 5 scenarios also reveal that extreme events, such as warm days,  warm nights, warm spell duration, and wet days are going to increase rapidly. The increase in extreme events will have a direct impact on the health and livelihoods of people. 
Findings further show that Province 5 is vulnerable to natural and human-induced disasters. Landslides, floods, fires, disease outbreaks, road accidents, drought, thunder and dry wind storm are among major hazard events. Disasters adversely  affect natural resources, reduce people's livelihood opportunities and the amount of income they generate and exacerbate their suffering. Agriculture is one of the most impacted sectors in the province followed by water resources, ecosystems, and human health. The disasters not only take human lives and destroy/damage physical property but also slow the pace of development. It was also found that, among the vulnerable population, children, older people and persons with disabilities (PwDs) are disproportionately affected by disaster and climate risks.