Deciding to adopt but to what? A two-stage complex systems model of the diffusion process

Steven D'Alessandro, Hume Winzar

    Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paperConference paperpeer-review


    We present a conceptual model where agents adopt new technology through a two-step process: People decide to upgrade, and then decide what particular model to buy. Each step is influenced by information from neighbours. In a networked world with two options, White & Black, we systematically manipulate (1) the initial number of agents with White compared to Black, (2) rate of naturally-occurring upgrade, (3) chance of upgrade prompted by a neighbour using White relative to Black, and (4) the relative chance of choosing White instead of Black having first decided to upgrade. Not surprisingly, adoption speed is influenced by starting users, natural upgrade, and relative upgrade chance. Market share, on the other hand, is influenced only by the relative chance of choosing White over Black, with no influence at all from the other predictors. We find that this result applies regardless of the type or complexity of network.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationANZMAC 2012
    Subtitle of host publicationSharing the cup of knowledge
    Place of PublicationAustralia
    Number of pages7
    Publication statusPublished - 2012
    EventAustralian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference: ANZMAC 2012 - Hilton Hotel, Adelaide, Australia
    Duration: 03 Dec 201205 Dec 2012 (ANZMAC 2012 Proceedings)


    ConferenceAustralian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference
    Abbreviated titleSharing the Cup of Knowledge
    Internet address


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