We calculate financial risk profiles for representative vineyards of 50-ha in four wine grape regions of South Australia using straw or living mulches as alternatives to herbicides for under-vine management. Calculations are based on replicated experiments in a commercial vineyard in each district with the most representative vine variety of each; the grape yields were measured in 2016 and 2017. Published district grape prices and yields for the years 2006 through 2017 form the basis for novel stochastic analysis. The herbicide (Control) treatment in Barossa Shiraz (BS) and Riverland Merlot (RM) showed greater median Gross Revenues ($/ha) than the other two districts: Eden Valley Shiraz and Langhorne Creek Cab-Sav. After subtraction of operating costs, and assuming alternative treatments produce grapes of equal quality and price as the Control in a district, the alternatives gave median Gross Margins ($/ha) greater than the Control in BS but lower than the Control in RM. Gross Margin results were mixed in the other two districts. The Gross Margin results above are magnified in financial Risk Profiles based on variations in Gross Margins times 50 ha across multiple ten-year periods after subtracting taxes, drawings, recurrent capital costs and interest on accumulating debt, for decadal cash margins. The Risk Profile of a treatment in a district is its cumulative distribution of decadal cash margins ($M). We show that choice of under-vine treatment can significantly affect a vineyard’s financial viability.
|Title of host publication||Australasian Agricultural & Resource Economics Society Annual Conf 2018, Adelaide|
|Place of Publication||University of Minesota|
|Number of pages||28|
|Publication status||Published - 06 Feb 2018|
|Event||62nd Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) Annual Conference 2018 - Adelaide Convention Centre , Adelaide, Australia|
Duration: 06 Feb 2018 → 09 Feb 2018
http://www.aares.org.au/iMIS_Prod/AARES2016/Event/2018AC/Submissions.aspx (paper submission guidelines)
https://esacentral.org.au/event/27555/australasian-agricultural-and-resource-economics-society-aares-annual-conference (conference info)
|Conference||62nd Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) Annual Conference 2018|
|Abbreviated title||Abundance in an Era of Scarcity? Challenges and Opportunities for Australasian Agriculture, Environment, Food, Resource and Agribusiness Sectors|
|Period||06/02/18 → 09/02/18|
Nordblom, T., Penfold, C., Weckert, M., Norton, M., Howie, J., & Hutchings, T. (2018). Economic and financial risks in under-vine management alternatives to herbicide in four South Australian wine-grape districts, 2016 & 2017. In Australasian Agricultural & Resource Economics Society Annual Conf 2018, Adelaide AgEconsearch.