Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®

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Dryland (rainfed) cotton is affected by weather variability, particularly extreme temperatures and rainfalls, which influence crop growth, development and yield. This variability in production was quantified in two
important dryland cotton-growing regions of Australia using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Ozcot cotton model. The present study integrates @RISK for multivariate distributions of risk
posed by weather and price variations over time to define financial risk profiles that show the probabilities of losses and gains for a given management plan. These results highlight how misleading a gross margin
analysis can be on its own, accounting only for variable costs and neglecting the greater share of fixed costs such as depreciation, interest on the debt, wages of permanent labour and managerial allowance controlling a farm’s economic profitability over time.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationFinancial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®
Number of pages4
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Event19th Australian Agronomy Conference - Wagga Wagga Civic Theatre, Wagga Wagga, Australia
Duration: 25 Aug 201929 Aug 2019 (proceedings) (proceedings)


Conference19th Australian Agronomy Conference
Abbreviated titleCells to Satellites
CityWagga Wagga
OtherThe 19th Australian Agronomy Conference will be held in Wagga Wagga, NSW from
25 – 29 August 2019. In the heart of the Riverina, Wagga Wagga has a range of rural industries across the region. Wagga has everything to offer the agronomy conference being surrounded by a mixed farming zone with irrigation to the west and permanent pasture enterprises to the east.
The conference theme Cells to satellites highlights the integrative nature of agronomy. Each of us work across a range of disciplines to optimise crop or pasture production for productivity and profitability. We have an increasing number of tools available to increase the precision and accuracy of our work; whether it is at the “cellular” level where DNA is mapped and biochemistry is unravelled or using “satellites” for remote sensing or guidance. The opportunities for enhancing our agronomy research is boundless.
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