Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®

Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paperConference paper

Abstract

Dryland (rainfed) cotton is affected by weather variability, particularly extreme temperatures and rainfalls, which influence crop growth, development and yield. This variability in production was quantified in two
important dryland cotton-growing regions of Australia using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Ozcot cotton model. The present study integrates @RISK for multivariate distributions of risk
posed by weather and price variations over time to define financial risk profiles that show the probabilities of losses and gains for a given management plan. These results highlight how misleading a gross margin
analysis can be on its own, accounting only for variable costs and neglecting the greater share of fixed costs such as depreciation, interest on the debt, wages of permanent labour and managerial allowance controlling a farm’s economic profitability over time.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationFinancial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®
Publication statusPublished - 28 Jun 2019

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Agricultural production
Financial risk
Cotton
Weather
Depreciation
Wages
Variable cost
Crops
Labor
Debt
Economics
Temperature
Rainfall
Farm
Management plan
Growth and development
Profitability
Multivariate distribution
Fixed costs

Cite this

Godfrey, S., Anwar, M., & Nordblom, T. (2019). Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. In Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®
Godfrey, Sosheel ; Anwar, Muhuddin ; Nordblom, Tom. / Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. 2019.
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Godfrey, S, Anwar, M & Nordblom, T 2019, Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. in Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®.

Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. / Godfrey, Sosheel; Anwar, Muhuddin; Nordblom, Tom.

Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. 2019.

Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paperConference paper

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AU - Nordblom, Tom

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Godfrey S, Anwar M, Nordblom T. Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. In Financial risk profiles for dryland cotton by APSIM-Ozcot and @Risk®. 2019