Future climate change increases canola productivity and water use efficiency in the rainfed cropping systems of Southern Australia

Hongtao Xing, Rohan Brill, Guangdi Li, De Li Liu, Allison Blake, Deb Slinger

    Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paperConference paperpeer-review

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    Canola is one of the major crops planted across Australia’s wheatbelt. Water shortages and uneven distribution of water resources are the key limitations for Australia canola productivity. This is expected to be aggravated in the warmer and dryer future climates with higher rainfall variability, leading to a threat to Australia canola industry. However, the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration has the potential to increase crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE). Therefore, there is a need to conduct a comprehensive assessment by combining the impacts of the changes in future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on canola yield and WUE for providing a fundamental insight for future Australia canola industry. In this study, we tested APSIM-Canola module against the experimental data, collected in 2013-2014 and 2016 in Wagga Wagga. The tested model was then used to predict canola yield and WUE in both historical and future climatic conditions. The simulation results showed ASPIM-Canola module captured the variations of canola yield across fertilizer applications and climatic variations. Comparisons between historical and projected future climates, there is an overall tendency for a decline of cumulative rainfall in canola growing seasons and an increase of air temperature. As a consequence, the increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall leads to a clear decline of canola yield and WUE, however, this negative impact could be offset by the positive impact of increasing atmospheric CO2concentration on canola yield and WUE. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia’s canola cropping systems.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the 19th Australian Agronomy Conference
    Place of PublicationAustralia
    PublisherAustralian Society of Agronomy
    Number of pages4
    Publication statusPublished - 2019
    Event19th Australian Agronomy Conference 2019 - Wagga Wagga Civic Theatre, Wagga Wagga, Australia
    Duration: 25 Aug 201929 Aug 2019
    https://web.archive.org/web/20190122040437/http://agronomyconference.com/ (Conference website)
    https://web.archive.org/web/20190625230032/http://www.agronomyconference.com/program (Conference program)


    Conference19th Australian Agronomy Conference 2019
    Abbreviated titleCells to Satellites
    CityWagga Wagga
    OtherThe 19th Australian Agronomy Conference will be held in Wagga Wagga, NSW from 25 – 29 August 2019. In the heart of the Riverina, Wagga Wagga has a range of rural industries across the region. Wagga has everything to offer the agronomy conference being surrounded by a mixed farming zone with irrigation to the west and permanent pasture enterprises to the east.
    The conference theme Cells to satellites highlights the integrative nature of agronomy. Each of us work across a range of disciplines to optimise crop or pasture production for productivity and profitability. We have an increasing number of tools available to increase the precision and accuracy of our work; whether it is at the “cellular” level where DNA is mapped and biochemistry is unravelled or using “satellites” for remote sensing or guidance. The opportunities for enhancing our agronomy research is boundless.
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