Import risk assessment incorporating a dose-response model: Introduction of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome into Australia via illegally imported raw pork

Victoria Brookes, Marta Hernandez-Jover, Patricia K. Holyoake, Michael P. Ward

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PPRS) has spread through parts of south-east Asia, posing a risk to Australia. The objective of this study was to assess the probability of infection of a pig in Australia with highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PPRS) following ingestion of illegally imported raw pork. A conservative scenario was considered in which 500 g of raw pork was imported from the Philippines into Australia without being detected by border security, then discarded from a household and potentially accessed by a pig. Monte Carlo simulation of a two-dimensional, stochastic model was used to estimate the probability of entry and exposure, and the probability of infection was assessed by incorporating a virus-decay and mechanistic dose-response model. Results indicated that the probability of infection of a feral pig after ingestion of raw meat was higher than the probability of infection of a domestic pig. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of input parameters on model output probability estimates, and extension of the virus-decay and dose-response model was used to explore the impact of different temperatures and time from slaughter to ingestion of the meat, different weights of meat, and the level of viraemia at slaughter on the infectivity of meat. Parameters with the highest influence on the model output were the level of viraemia of a pig prior to slaughter and the probability of access by a feral pig to food-waste discarded on property surrounding a household. Extension of the decay and dose response model showed that small pieces of meat (10g) from a highly pathogenic PRRS viraemic pig could contain enough virus to have a high probability of infection of a pig, and that routes to Australia by sea or air from all highly pathogenic PRRS virus endemic countries were of interest dependent on the temperature of the raw meat during transport.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)565-579
Number of pages15
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume113
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2014

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