Abstract
Objectives:
Poultry farming, transportation and trading activities are known to provide opportunities for transmission and rapid dissemination of infectious agents, with serious implications for food safety and risk of spillover into humans. However, the inherent complexity of such systems limits our ability to disentangle the relative contribution of individual key actor types to epidemic risk. Here, we aim to fill this gap by presenting a novel, detailed agent-based model (ABM) of poultry production and distribution.
Methods:
The model involves multiple types of actors and settings, including farms, mobile traders and livebird markets, and synthesises a wealth of poultry trade data collected in the context of a large-scale interdisciplinary research initiative. In addition, the ABM allows to simulate the spread of one or more pathogens within and between flocks, through direct and/or environmental transmission.
Results:
Using avian influenza in Bangladesh as a case study, we show that our model is able to reproduce realistic networks of poultry movements, over a range of demographic and behavioural assumptions about key actors. We then illustrate how our ABM can be used to characterise chicken mixing patterns across the country, evaluate transmission risk in different settings, and re-construct
simulated transmission chains which are then compared to phylogenetic analytical outputs. Finally, we assess the potential impact of the underlying network on persistence and dissemination of individual viral strains and on the co-circulation dynamics of multiple lineages in the same population.
Conclusion:
Our ABM provides a novel framework that allows practitioners to characterise a wide variety of ecoepidemiological scenarios, including the emergence of novel pathogens and the introduction of public health interventions.
Poultry farming, transportation and trading activities are known to provide opportunities for transmission and rapid dissemination of infectious agents, with serious implications for food safety and risk of spillover into humans. However, the inherent complexity of such systems limits our ability to disentangle the relative contribution of individual key actor types to epidemic risk. Here, we aim to fill this gap by presenting a novel, detailed agent-based model (ABM) of poultry production and distribution.
Methods:
The model involves multiple types of actors and settings, including farms, mobile traders and livebird markets, and synthesises a wealth of poultry trade data collected in the context of a large-scale interdisciplinary research initiative. In addition, the ABM allows to simulate the spread of one or more pathogens within and between flocks, through direct and/or environmental transmission.
Results:
Using avian influenza in Bangladesh as a case study, we show that our model is able to reproduce realistic networks of poultry movements, over a range of demographic and behavioural assumptions about key actors. We then illustrate how our ABM can be used to characterise chicken mixing patterns across the country, evaluate transmission risk in different settings, and re-construct
simulated transmission chains which are then compared to phylogenetic analytical outputs. Finally, we assess the potential impact of the underlying network on persistence and dissemination of individual viral strains and on the co-circulation dynamics of multiple lineages in the same population.
Conclusion:
Our ABM provides a novel framework that allows practitioners to characterise a wide variety of ecoepidemiological scenarios, including the emergence of novel pathogens and the introduction of public health interventions.
| Original language | English |
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| Pages | 17 |
| Number of pages | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 07 Aug 2022 |
| Event | 16th International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics 2022: ISVEE 16 - The Halifax Convention Centre, Halifax, Canada Duration: 07 Aug 2022 → 12 Aug 2022 https://venuewest.eventsair.com/isvee2022/ https://venuewest-my.sharepoint.com/personal/congress_venuewest_com/_layouts/15/onedrive.aspx?id=%2Fpersonal%2Fcongress%5Fvenuewest%5Fcom%2FDocuments%2FPublic%2FISVEE%202022%2FISVEE%2D2022%2DProceedings%2Epdf&parent=%2Fpersonal%2Fcongress%5Fvenuewest%5Fcom%2FDocuments%2FPublic%2FISVEE%202022&ga=1 (Proceedings) https://www.sciquest.org.nz/browse/publications/view/109 (Proceedings page) |
Conference
| Conference | 16th International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics 2022 |
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| Abbreviated title | Connecting animals, people, and their shared environments |
| Country/Territory | Canada |
| City | Halifax |
| Period | 07/08/22 → 12/08/22 |
| Other | ISVEE is a global forum for those interested in veterinary epidemiology and economics, and related disciplines in the health and social sciences, that provides an opportunity for scientists, health policymakers and other professionals, to exchange information and discuss solutions to help advance health for people, animals, and ecosystems. The 2022 edition will provide insights into various approaches to addressing animal disease spread, including the One Health perspective as well as different modelling approaches to support the control of transboundary diseases such as peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and foot and mouth disease (FMD). |
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