TY - JOUR
T1 - Insightful or wishful
T2 - Lawyers' ability to predict case outcomes
AU - Goodman-Delahunty, Jane
AU - Granhag, P.A.
AU - Hartwig, M.
AU - Loftus, E.F.
N1 - Imported on 12 Apr 2017 - DigiTool details were: month (773h) = May 2010; Journal title (773t) = Psychology Public Policy and Law. ISSNs: 1076-8971;
PY - 2010/5
Y1 - 2010/5
N2 - Lawyers' litigation forecasts play an integral role in the justice system. In the course of litigation, lawyers constantly make strategic decisions and/or advise their clients based on their perceptions and predictions of case outcomes. The study investigated the realism in predictions by a sample of attorneys (n=481) across the USA who specified a minimum goal to achieve in a case set for trial. They estimated their chances of meeting this goal by providing a confidence estimate. After the cases were resolved, case outcomes were compared with the predictions. Overall, lawyers were overconfident in their predictions, and calibration did not increase with years of legal experience. Female lawyers were slightly better calibrated than their male counterparts, and showed evidence of less overconfidence. In an attempt to reduce overconfidence, some lawyers were asked to generate reasons why they might not achieve their stated goals. This manipulation did not improve calibration.
AB - Lawyers' litigation forecasts play an integral role in the justice system. In the course of litigation, lawyers constantly make strategic decisions and/or advise their clients based on their perceptions and predictions of case outcomes. The study investigated the realism in predictions by a sample of attorneys (n=481) across the USA who specified a minimum goal to achieve in a case set for trial. They estimated their chances of meeting this goal by providing a confidence estimate. After the cases were resolved, case outcomes were compared with the predictions. Overall, lawyers were overconfident in their predictions, and calibration did not increase with years of legal experience. Female lawyers were slightly better calibrated than their male counterparts, and showed evidence of less overconfidence. In an attempt to reduce overconfidence, some lawyers were asked to generate reasons why they might not achieve their stated goals. This manipulation did not improve calibration.
KW - Case predictions
KW - Confidence judgements
KW - Legal decision-making
KW - Metacognitive realism
U2 - 10.1037/a0019060
DO - 10.1037/a0019060
M3 - Article
SN - 1076-8971
VL - 16
SP - 133
EP - 157
JO - Psychology, Public Policy, and Law
JF - Psychology, Public Policy, and Law
IS - 2
ER -
