TY - JOUR
T1 - Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
AU - Kuddus, Md Abdul
AU - Mohiuddin, M.
AU - Rahman, Azizur
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/8/16
Y1 - 2021/8/16
N2 - Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one (i.e.R0<1). This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one (i.e.R0<1), and if greater than one (i.e.R0>1) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on R. The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute R and measles prevalence (I ∗) with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate (β) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.
AB - Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one (i.e.R0<1). This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one (i.e.R0<1), and if greater than one (i.e.R0>1) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on R. The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute R and measles prevalence (I ∗) with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate (β) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.
KW - Respiratory infectious diseases
KW - Asymptotically stable
KW - Partial rank correlation
KW - Numerical simulations
KW - Bangladesh
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U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-95913-8
DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-95913-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 34400667
AN - SCOPUS:85112708128
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 11
SP - 1
EP - 16
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 16571
ER -