Modelling interactions between economic activity, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity and agricultural productivity

Manfred Lenzen, Christopher Dey, Barney Foran, Asaph Widmer-Cooper, Ralf Ohlemüller, Moira Williams, Thomas Wiedmann

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this article, we develop a modelling approach which examines selected drivers of ecosystem functioning and agricultural productivity. In particular, we develop linkagesbetween land use and biodiversity and between biodiversity and agricultural productivity. We review the literature for quantitative estimates of key relationships and their parameters for modelling human consumption, land use, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions on biodiversity and agricultural productivity. We assemble these specifications into an iterative causal model and carry out a number of scenario projections of country-level consumption, production, land use, energy use, greenhouse gasemissions, species diversity, and agricultural production up to 2050. Finally, we dissect the projections into key drivers using structural decomposition and sensitivity analyses.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)377-416
Number of pages40
JournalEnvironmental Modeling and Assessment
Volume18
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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