Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports

Marta Hernandez-Jover, Kathryn Glass, David Jordan, S Vilkins, A Parisi, Martin Kirk

Research output: Other contribution to conferenceAbstract

Abstract

This study investigated the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella enterica Typhimurium Definite Type 104 (Salmonella DT104) among humans and animals in Australia via imported beef. Materials and methods: An exposure assessment was conducted to evaluate pathways of direct and indirect exposure of humans and animals to Salmonella DT104 present in imported beef, using scenario trees. Pathway probabilities were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation modelling with @RISK 6.0, considering volume of imports from different countries and different prevalence of Salmonella DT104 in beef. The human health implications of Salmonella DT104 establishment in animals were investigated estimating the additional yearly number of human cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to this establishment.Results: The probability of entry of Salmonella DT104 for each exposure unit being introduced is very low for all the scenarios considered. For each infected exposure unit, defined as standard meat serve size (80-120g) being imported, the median probability of direct exposure to humans and animals is estimated to be very low (0.023) and extremely low (0.0001), respectively. When 2,000 to 20,000 infected exposure units are introduced, the expected median number of exposures in a year, ranges from 45 (95% prediction interval, 6-88) to 454 (61-856) in humans, 0 (0-1) to 2 (0-7) in wildlife and 1 (0-7) to 15 (2-60) in domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in cattle would led to less than one additional death and 30 hospitalisations per year in humans. The models predicted up to two additional deaths and 350 additional hospitalisations if Salmonella DT104 became established in poultry.Conclusions: Considering the model assumptions, the likelihood of Salmonella DT104 entry and exposure posed by each exposure unit being imported is extremely low in humans and negligible in wildlife and domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in poultry would have the most significant human health outcomes.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 12 Nov 2018
EventInternational Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics - Chiang Mai, Thailand
Duration: 12 Nov 201816 Nov 2018

Conference

ConferenceInternational Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
CountryThailand
CityChiang Mai
Period12/11/1816/11/18

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import
modeling
animal
poultry
salmonella
exposure
meat
cattle
prediction
simulation

Cite this

Hernandez-Jover, M., Glass, K., Jordan, D., Vilkins, S., Parisi, A., & Kirk, M. (2018). Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports. Abstract from International Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
Hernandez-Jover, Marta ; Glass, Kathryn ; Jordan, David ; Vilkins, S ; Parisi, A ; Kirk, Martin. / Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports. Abstract from International Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
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title = "Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports",
abstract = "This study investigated the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella enterica Typhimurium Definite Type 104 (Salmonella DT104) among humans and animals in Australia via imported beef. Materials and methods: An exposure assessment was conducted to evaluate pathways of direct and indirect exposure of humans and animals to Salmonella DT104 present in imported beef, using scenario trees. Pathway probabilities were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation modelling with @RISK 6.0, considering volume of imports from different countries and different prevalence of Salmonella DT104 in beef. The human health implications of Salmonella DT104 establishment in animals were investigated estimating the additional yearly number of human cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to this establishment.Results: The probability of entry of Salmonella DT104 for each exposure unit being introduced is very low for all the scenarios considered. For each infected exposure unit, defined as standard meat serve size (80-120g) being imported, the median probability of direct exposure to humans and animals is estimated to be very low (0.023) and extremely low (0.0001), respectively. When 2,000 to 20,000 infected exposure units are introduced, the expected median number of exposures in a year, ranges from 45 (95{\%} prediction interval, 6-88) to 454 (61-856) in humans, 0 (0-1) to 2 (0-7) in wildlife and 1 (0-7) to 15 (2-60) in domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in cattle would led to less than one additional death and 30 hospitalisations per year in humans. The models predicted up to two additional deaths and 350 additional hospitalisations if Salmonella DT104 became established in poultry.Conclusions: Considering the model assumptions, the likelihood of Salmonella DT104 entry and exposure posed by each exposure unit being imported is extremely low in humans and negligible in wildlife and domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in poultry would have the most significant human health outcomes.",
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Hernandez-Jover, M, Glass, K, Jordan, D, Vilkins, S, Parisi, A & Kirk, M 2018, 'Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports' International Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 12/11/18 - 16/11/18, .

Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports. / Hernandez-Jover, Marta; Glass, Kathryn; Jordan, David; Vilkins, S; Parisi, A; Kirk, Martin.

2018. Abstract from International Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Research output: Other contribution to conferenceAbstract

TY - CONF

T1 - Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports

AU - Hernandez-Jover, Marta

AU - Glass, Kathryn

AU - Jordan, David

AU - Vilkins, S

AU - Parisi, A

AU - Kirk, Martin

PY - 2018/11/12

Y1 - 2018/11/12

N2 - This study investigated the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella enterica Typhimurium Definite Type 104 (Salmonella DT104) among humans and animals in Australia via imported beef. Materials and methods: An exposure assessment was conducted to evaluate pathways of direct and indirect exposure of humans and animals to Salmonella DT104 present in imported beef, using scenario trees. Pathway probabilities were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation modelling with @RISK 6.0, considering volume of imports from different countries and different prevalence of Salmonella DT104 in beef. The human health implications of Salmonella DT104 establishment in animals were investigated estimating the additional yearly number of human cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to this establishment.Results: The probability of entry of Salmonella DT104 for each exposure unit being introduced is very low for all the scenarios considered. For each infected exposure unit, defined as standard meat serve size (80-120g) being imported, the median probability of direct exposure to humans and animals is estimated to be very low (0.023) and extremely low (0.0001), respectively. When 2,000 to 20,000 infected exposure units are introduced, the expected median number of exposures in a year, ranges from 45 (95% prediction interval, 6-88) to 454 (61-856) in humans, 0 (0-1) to 2 (0-7) in wildlife and 1 (0-7) to 15 (2-60) in domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in cattle would led to less than one additional death and 30 hospitalisations per year in humans. The models predicted up to two additional deaths and 350 additional hospitalisations if Salmonella DT104 became established in poultry.Conclusions: Considering the model assumptions, the likelihood of Salmonella DT104 entry and exposure posed by each exposure unit being imported is extremely low in humans and negligible in wildlife and domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in poultry would have the most significant human health outcomes.

AB - This study investigated the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella enterica Typhimurium Definite Type 104 (Salmonella DT104) among humans and animals in Australia via imported beef. Materials and methods: An exposure assessment was conducted to evaluate pathways of direct and indirect exposure of humans and animals to Salmonella DT104 present in imported beef, using scenario trees. Pathway probabilities were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation modelling with @RISK 6.0, considering volume of imports from different countries and different prevalence of Salmonella DT104 in beef. The human health implications of Salmonella DT104 establishment in animals were investigated estimating the additional yearly number of human cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to this establishment.Results: The probability of entry of Salmonella DT104 for each exposure unit being introduced is very low for all the scenarios considered. For each infected exposure unit, defined as standard meat serve size (80-120g) being imported, the median probability of direct exposure to humans and animals is estimated to be very low (0.023) and extremely low (0.0001), respectively. When 2,000 to 20,000 infected exposure units are introduced, the expected median number of exposures in a year, ranges from 45 (95% prediction interval, 6-88) to 454 (61-856) in humans, 0 (0-1) to 2 (0-7) in wildlife and 1 (0-7) to 15 (2-60) in domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in cattle would led to less than one additional death and 30 hospitalisations per year in humans. The models predicted up to two additional deaths and 350 additional hospitalisations if Salmonella DT104 became established in poultry.Conclusions: Considering the model assumptions, the likelihood of Salmonella DT104 entry and exposure posed by each exposure unit being imported is extremely low in humans and negligible in wildlife and domestic animals. Establishment of Salmonella DT104 in poultry would have the most significant human health outcomes.

M3 - Abstract

ER -

Hernandez-Jover M, Glass K, Jordan D, Vilkins S, Parisi A, Kirk M. Modelling the probability of introduction and establishment of Salmonella subtypes of biosecurity concern in Australia through beef imports. 2018. Abstract from International Symposium for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Chiang Mai, Thailand.