The Impact of Uncertain Rice Supply in Northeast Thailand on Inventories and Unfilled Customer Demand

The aim of the research discussed in this paper was to investigate the effects of uncertain rice supply caused by drought on inventory levels and unfilled customer demand along the rice supply chain in northeast Thailand. Astochastic simulation model was developed for northeast Thailand, an important rice-growing region. Using historical data from normal and drought years, three different scenarios with respect to rough rice production wereanalyzed. The results indicate that droughts periodically cause large rice production losses that flow-on to significant supply chain problems such as fluctuating inventory levels, stock-outs and unfilled customer demand.