Uncertainty in a cellular automata model for vegetation change

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Abstract

When farmland is abandoned pasture is rapidly taken over by woody vegetation. As tree dispersal depends on the presence of a seed source nearby and other local conditions, and can be measured in discrete annual time steps, a Cellular Automata model (CA) is a natural fit for modelling this phenomenon. The model presented here is a stochastic CA, with a relaxed definition of neighbourhood. The aim is to explore sources of uncertainty in the model, and techniques for handling and visualising uncertainty. The results show that it is possible to realistically model vegetation change using CA, acknowledging and incorporating uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)253-268
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Spatial Science
Volume59
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2014

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