Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy

Celia M. Reyes, Christian D. Mina, Kevin Parton, Jason Crean, Edna L. Juanillo, Rosalina G. de Guzman

Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paperConference paperpeer-review

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Abstract

The value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) on Philippine rice policy was assessed using Bayesian and stochastic programming models. Historical regional rice production and SCF forecast accuracy during the ENSO phases (El Niño/La Niña/Neutral years) were used to derive posterior probabilities. Estimates were made on the regional level of rice production given forecasts of ENSO phase and rice inventory levels given aggregate production and stock movements. Policy implications were then inferred from derived figures considering optimal rice stock distribution and timing and level of importation. SCF use in rice policy decisions showed significant benefits in managing inventory and cutting costs.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication6th ASAE International Conference
Subtitle of host publicationThe Asian economic renaissance: What is in it for agriculture
EditorsArsenio M Balisacan, Mercedita A Sombilla
Place of PublicationPhilippines
PublisherSEARCA
Pages1-14
Number of pages14
Publication statusPublished - 2008
EventAsian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference - Makati City, Philippines, Philippines
Duration: 28 Aug 200830 Aug 2008

Conference

ConferenceAsian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference
Country/TerritoryPhilippines
Period28/08/0830/08/08

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