Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy

Celia M. Reyes; Christian D. Mina; Kevin Parton; Jason Crean; Edna L. Juanillo; Rosalina G. de Guzman

Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy

Celia M. Reyes, Christian D. Mina, Kevin Parton, Jason Crean, Edna L. Juanillo, Rosalina G. de Guzman

Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paper › Conference paper › peer-review

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Abstract

The value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) on Philippine rice policy was assessed using Bayesian and stochastic programming models. Historical regional rice production and SCF forecast accuracy during the ENSO phases (El Niño/La Niña/Neutral years) were used to derive posterior probabilities. Estimates were made on the regional level of rice production given forecasts of ENSO phase and rice inventory levels given aggregate production and stock movements. Policy implications were then inferred from derived figures considering optimal rice stock distribution and timing and level of importation. SCF use in rice policy decisions showed significant benefits in managing inventory and cutting costs.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	6th ASAE International Conference
Subtitle of host publication	The Asian economic renaissance: What is in it for agriculture
Editors	Arsenio M Balisacan, Mercedita A Sombilla
Place of Publication	Philippines
Publisher	SEARCA
Pages	1-14
Number of pages	14
Publication status	Published - 2008
Event	Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference - Makati City, Philippines, Philippines Duration: 28 Aug 2008 → 30 Aug 2008

Conference

Conference	Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference
Country/Territory	Philippines
Period	28/08/08 → 30/08/08

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@inproceedings{de6d511e55744d11bab2eea24bc0af3f,

title = "Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy",

abstract = "The value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) on Philippine rice policy was assessed using Bayesian and stochastic programming models. Historical regional rice production and SCF forecast accuracy during the ENSO phases (El Ni{\~n}o/La Ni{\~n}a/Neutral years) were used to derive posterior probabilities. Estimates were made on the regional level of rice production given forecasts of ENSO phase and rice inventory levels given aggregate production and stock movements. Policy implications were then inferred from derived figures considering optimal rice stock distribution and timing and level of importation. SCF use in rice policy decisions showed significant benefits in managing inventory and cutting costs.",

keywords = "Open access version available, Bayesian model, El Ni{\~n} o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Rice policy, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Stochastic programming",

author = "Reyes, {Celia M.} and Mina, {Christian D.} and Kevin Parton and Jason Crean and Juanillo, {Edna L.} and {de Guzman}, {Rosalina G.}",

note = "Imported on 03 May 2017 - DigiTool details were: publisher = Philippines: SEARCA, 2008. editor/s (773b) = Dr Arsenio M Balisacan and Dr Mercedita A Sombilla; Event dates (773o) = 28-30 August 2008; Parent title (773t) = Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference.; Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference ; Conference date: 28-08-2008 Through 30-08-2008",

year = "2008",

language = "English",

pages = "1--14",

editor = "Balisacan, {Arsenio M} and Sombilla, {Mercedita A}",

booktitle = "6th ASAE International Conference",

publisher = "SEARCA",

}

Reyes, CM, Mina, CD, Parton, K, Crean, J, Juanillo, EL & de Guzman, RG 2008, Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy. in AM Balisacan & MA Sombilla (eds), 6th ASAE International Conference: The Asian economic renaissance: What is in it for agriculture. SEARCA, Philippines, pp. 1-14, Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference, Philippines, 28/08/08.

Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy. / Reyes, Celia M.; Mina, Christian D.; Parton, Kevin et al.
6th ASAE International Conference: The Asian economic renaissance: What is in it for agriculture. ed. / Arsenio M Balisacan; Mercedita A Sombilla. Philippines: SEARCA, 2008. p. 1-14.

Research output: Book chapter/Published conference paper › Conference paper › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy

AU - Reyes, Celia M.

AU - Mina, Christian D.

AU - Parton, Kevin

AU - Crean, Jason

AU - Juanillo, Edna L.

AU - de Guzman, Rosalina G.

N1 - Imported on 03 May 2017 - DigiTool details were: publisher = Philippines: SEARCA, 2008. editor/s (773b) = Dr Arsenio M Balisacan and Dr Mercedita A Sombilla; Event dates (773o) = 28-30 August 2008; Parent title (773t) = Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference.

PY - 2008

Y1 - 2008

N2 - The value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) on Philippine rice policy was assessed using Bayesian and stochastic programming models. Historical regional rice production and SCF forecast accuracy during the ENSO phases (El Niño/La Niña/Neutral years) were used to derive posterior probabilities. Estimates were made on the regional level of rice production given forecasts of ENSO phase and rice inventory levels given aggregate production and stock movements. Policy implications were then inferred from derived figures considering optimal rice stock distribution and timing and level of importation. SCF use in rice policy decisions showed significant benefits in managing inventory and cutting costs.

AB - The value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) on Philippine rice policy was assessed using Bayesian and stochastic programming models. Historical regional rice production and SCF forecast accuracy during the ENSO phases (El Niño/La Niña/Neutral years) were used to derive posterior probabilities. Estimates were made on the regional level of rice production given forecasts of ENSO phase and rice inventory levels given aggregate production and stock movements. Policy implications were then inferred from derived figures considering optimal rice stock distribution and timing and level of importation. SCF use in rice policy decisions showed significant benefits in managing inventory and cutting costs.

KW - Open access version available

KW - Bayesian model

KW - El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

KW - Rice policy

KW - Seasonal Climate Forecast

KW - Stochastic programming

M3 - Conference paper

SP - 1

EP - 14

BT - 6th ASAE International Conference

A2 - Balisacan, Arsenio M

A2 - Sombilla, Mercedita A

PB - SEARCA

CY - Philippines

T2 - Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference

Y2 - 28 August 2008 through 30 August 2008

ER -

Use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in Philippine rice policy

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