Abstract
The value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) on Philippine rice policy was assessed using Bayesian and stochastic programming models. Historical regional rice production and SCF forecast accuracy during the ENSO phases (El Niño/La Niña/Neutral years) were used to derive posterior probabilities. Estimates were made on the regional level of rice production given forecasts of ENSO phase and rice inventory levels given aggregate production and stock movements. Policy implications were then inferred from derived figures considering optimal rice stock distribution and timing and level of importation. SCF use in rice policy decisions showed significant benefits in managing inventory and cutting costs.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | 6th ASAE International Conference |
Subtitle of host publication | The Asian economic renaissance: What is in it for agriculture |
Editors | Arsenio M Balisacan, Mercedita A Sombilla |
Place of Publication | Philippines |
Publisher | SEARCA |
Pages | 1-14 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Publication status | Published - 2008 |
Event | Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference - Makati City, Philippines, Philippines Duration: 28 Aug 2008 → 30 Aug 2008 |
Conference
Conference | Asian Society of Agricultural Economics (ASAE) International Conference |
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Country/Territory | Philippines |
Period | 28/08/08 → 30/08/08 |